to: Les Sasaki, Sterling Anderson
from: John Fregonese
subject: Correction to Forecasts memo of 7/12/2002
date: August 7, 2002
Some errors in the land need estimates of the population forecasts have been brought to our attention by Councilor Richard Bjelland of Woodburn. We inadvertently omitted including a commercial and industrial land need estimate for the new forecasts, as we had in the original land need forecasts included in the Draft Urbanization Element of the Marion County Comprehensive Plan. This has the effect of increasing the land need forecast for options 2 and 3 by approximately 36%.
We include with this memo an amended table, as well as three more detailed tables that show the assumptions used in developing each forecast, as well as correcting another small error in Woodburn’s land need for the basic forecast.
In addition, Mr. Bjelland pointed out that table 3 in the proposed County draft contained forecasts of ethnic makeup from Woods and Poole (a national forecasting group) that should be superceded by the 2000 Census data. The growth in Hispanics in Marion County greatly exceeded all forecasts, totaling 17% of the county in 2000 rather than the 11.8% forecast by Woods and Poole. We think the new data make the point even more forcefully, and would suggest including the following modified table 3 in the final document.
Percentage White-Not Hispanic
Percentage Hispanic, Any Race
A corrected table for the 7/12/2002 memo is attached. The former memo only included the total UGB population, we have also added the Marion County unincorporated totals to show the total county population.